Šilas 3–1 Sūduva II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Šilas

FT

3 – 1

Sūduva II

8/21/2021

1 Lyga · Round 19Kazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Šilas59%

×Draw22%

Sūduva II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠilasExpected goals in this matchSūduva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.02

Šilas

1.98

Sūduva II

1.02

Šilas creates 94% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

0.69

1.34

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Šilas

1.89

Sūduva II

0.69

allows per match

Šilas

1.34

Sūduva II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Sūduva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Šilas or draw

81%

Šilas or Sūduva II

78%

Draw or Sūduva II

41%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+

36%

Sūduva II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals

86%

Šilas 2+ goals

59%

Šilas 3+ goals

31%

Sūduva II 1+ goals

64%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

27%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)

76%

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Šilas scores more

59%

level

22%

Sūduva II scores more

19%

Šilas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff