Šilas 2–2 Šiauliai: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Šilas

FT

2 – 2

Šiauliai

8/8/2021

1 Lyga · Round 17Kazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas33%

×Draw23%

Šiauliai44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠilasExpected goals in this matchŠiauliai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.76

Šilas

1.52

Šiauliai

1.76

Šiauliai creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.89

creates per match

2.18

1.34

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Šilas

1.89

Šiauliai

2.18

allows per match

Šilas

1.34

Šiauliai

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Šiauliai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Šilas or draw

56%

Šilas or Šiauliai

77%

Draw or Šiauliai

67%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+

16%

Šiauliai wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals

78%

Šilas 2+ goals

45%

Šilas 3+ goals

20%

Šiauliai 1+ goals

83%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

52%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)

43%

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Šiauliai attack 2.18 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Šilas scores more

33%

level

23%

Šiauliai scores more

44%

Šiauliai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff