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Šilas vs Panevėžys — Cup 2020

Šilas
Šilas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Panevėžys
Panevėžysadvanced
9/13/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsSūduvos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Šilas13%
×Draw15%
Panevėžys73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.18
Panevėžys
2.96

Panevėžys creates 151% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.60
Panevėžys
3.12

allows per match

Šilas
2.80
Panevėžys
0.76

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
27%
Šilas or Panevėžys
85%
Draw or Panevėžys
87%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
5%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
69%
Šilas 2+ goals
33%
Šilas 3+ goals
12%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
95%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
79%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
15%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.60 + Panevėžys defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Panevėžys attack 3.12 + Šilas defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Šilas scores more
13%
level
15%
Panevėžys scores more
73%

Panevėžys at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Šilas 0–2 Panevėžys

Panevėžys beat Šilas 2-0 in Cup on September 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sūduvos stadionas in Marijampolė.