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Šilas vs Neptūną Klaipėda — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
FT
0 – 0
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
8/28/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 20Kazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas38%
×Draw23%
Neptūną Klaipėda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.68
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.05

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.47

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
61%
Šilas or Neptūną Klaipėda
77%
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
62%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
19%
Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
81%
Šilas 2+ goals
50%
Šilas 3+ goals
24%
Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
82%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
50%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
50%
Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Šilas scores more
38%
level
23%
Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
39%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šilas vs Neptūną Klaipėda

Šilas and Neptūną Klaipėda drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Kazlų Rūdos stadionas in Kazlų Rūda.