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Šilas vs Neptūną Klaipėda — Cup 2020

Šilas
Šilas
FT
5 – 1
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
6/18/2020CupCup · 1st RoundKazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Šilas9%
×Draw11%
Neptūną Klaipėda81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.39
Neptūną Klaipėda
4.06

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 192% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.60
Neptūną Klaipėda
5.33

allows per match

Šilas
2.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
19%
Šilas or Neptūną Klaipėda
89%
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
91%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
3%
Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
75%
Šilas 2+ goals
40%
Šilas 3+ goals
16%
Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
98%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
90%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
10%
Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.60 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 5.33 + Šilas defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 4.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Šilas scores more
9%
level
11%
Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
81%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šilas vs Neptūną Klaipėda

Šilas beat Neptūną Klaipėda 5-1 in Cup on June 18, 2020.

The match was played at Kazlų Rūdos stadionas in Kazlų Rūda.