Siheung Citizen 1–0 Yangpyeong: Result & Stats

Siheung Citizen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yangpyeong

4/26/2026

K3 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Siheung Citizen54%

×Draw26%

Yangpyeong21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siheung CitizenExpected goals in this matchYangpyeong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.85

Siheung Citizen

1.55

Yangpyeong

0.85

Siheung Citizen creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 42 away

1.53

creates per match

0.67

1.03

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Siheung Citizen

1.53

Yangpyeong

0.67

allows per match

Siheung Citizen

1.03

Yangpyeong

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siheung Citizen+0.00on par

Yangpyeong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siheung Citizen ↓

Yangpyeong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Siheung Citizen or draw

79%

Siheung Citizen or Yangpyeong

74%

Draw or Yangpyeong

46%

Winning margin

Siheung Citizen wins by 2+

28%

Yangpyeong wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Siheung Citizen 1+ goals

79%

Siheung Citizen 2+ goals

46%

Siheung Citizen 3+ goals

20%

Yangpyeong 1+ goals

57%

Yangpyeong 2+ goals

21%

Yangpyeong 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)

72%

Yangpyeong (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siheung Citizen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Yangpyeong away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siheung Citizen attack 1.53 + Yangpyeong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Yangpyeong attack 0.67 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Siheung Citizen scores more

54%

level

26%

Yangpyeong scores more

21%

Siheung Citizen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Siheung Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff