Siheung Citizen 3–2 Yangju Citizen: Result & Stats

Siheung Citizen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Yangju Citizen

4/2/2023

K3 League · Round 4Jeongwang Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Siheung Citizen55%

×Draw25%

Yangju Citizen20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siheung CitizenExpected goals in this matchYangju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.85

Siheung Citizen

1.61

Yangju Citizen

0.85

Siheung Citizen creates 89% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 54 away

1.53

creates per match

0.67

1.03

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Siheung Citizen

1.53

Yangju Citizen

0.67

allows per match

Siheung Citizen

1.03

Yangju Citizen

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siheung Citizen+0.00on par

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siheung Citizen ↓

Yangju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Siheung Citizen or draw

80%

Siheung Citizen or Yangju Citizen

75%

Draw or Yangju Citizen

45%

Winning margin

Siheung Citizen wins by 2+

30%

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Siheung Citizen 1+ goals

80%

Siheung Citizen 2+ goals

48%

Siheung Citizen 3+ goals

22%

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

57%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

21%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)

74%

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siheung Citizen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siheung Citizen attack 1.53 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Siheung Citizen scores more

55%

level

25%

Yangju Citizen scores more

20%

Siheung Citizen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Siheung Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff