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Sigulda vs Parks — Cup 2020

Sigulda
Sigulda
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Parks
Parks
5/18/2024CupCup · 1st RoundKrimuldas vidusskolas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sigulda14%
×Draw14%
Parks72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigulda
1.50
Parks
3.38

Parks creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sigulda
1.50
Parks
2.75

allows per match

Sigulda
4.00
Parks
1.50

finishing

Sigulda+0.00on par
Parks+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigulda ↓

Parks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Sigulda or draw
28%
Sigulda or Parks
86%
Draw or Parks
86%

Winning margin

Sigulda wins by 2+
6%
Parks wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Sigulda 1+ goals
78%
Sigulda 2+ goals
44%
Sigulda 3+ goals
19%
Parks 1+ goals
96%
Parks 2+ goals
84%
Parks 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Sigulda (draw refunded)
16%
Parks (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigulda at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Parks away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigulda attack 1.50 + Parks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Parks attack 2.75 + Sigulda defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sigulda scores more
14%
level
14%
Parks scores more
72%

Parks at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Parks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigulda vs Parks

Parks beat Sigulda 5-0 in Cup on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Krimuldas vidusskolas stadions in Ragana.