Sigulda 0–5 Mārupe: Result & Stats | Cup

Sigulda

0 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Mārupe

5/21/2022

Cup · 1st RoundCēsu pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sigulda3%

×Draw6%

Mārupe91%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiguldaExpected goals in this matchMārupe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

4.71

Sigulda

0.96

Mārupe

4.71

Mārupe creates 391% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

5.43

4.00

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Sigulda

1.50

Mārupe

5.43

allows per match

Sigulda

4.00

Mārupe

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigulda+0.00on par

Mārupe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigulda ↓

Mārupe →

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–49%

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Sigulda or draw

Sigulda or Mārupe

94%

Draw or Mārupe

97%

Winning margin

Sigulda wins by 2+

Mārupe wins by 2+

79%

Team goals

Sigulda 1+ goals

62%

Sigulda 2+ goals

25%

Sigulda 3+ goals

Mārupe 1+ goals

99%

Mārupe 2+ goals

94%

Mārupe 3+ goals

81%

Draw no bet

Sigulda (draw refunded)

Mārupe (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sigulda at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Mārupe away — creates 5.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sigulda attack 1.50 + Mārupe defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mārupe attack 5.43 + Sigulda defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 91%?"

Sigulda scores more

level

Mārupe scores more

91%

Mārupe at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Mārupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff