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Sigulda vs Cēsis — Cup 2020

Sigulda
Sigulda
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cēsis
Cēsis
5/13/2023CupCup · Preliminary RoundCēsu pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sigulda47%
×Draw18%
Cēsis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigulda
2.83
Cēsis
2.42

Sigulda creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sigulda
1.50
Cēsis
0.83

allows per match

Sigulda
4.00
Cēsis
4.17

finishing

Sigulda+0.00on par
Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigulda ↓

Cēsis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Sigulda or draw
66%
Sigulda or Cēsis
82%
Draw or Cēsis
53%

Winning margin

Sigulda wins by 2+
30%
Cēsis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sigulda 1+ goals
94%
Sigulda 2+ goals
77%
Sigulda 3+ goals
53%
Cēsis 1+ goals
91%
Cēsis 2+ goals
69%
Cēsis 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Sigulda (draw refunded)
58%
Cēsis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigulda at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigulda attack 1.50 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Cēsis attack 0.83 + Sigulda defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sigulda scores more
47%
level
18%
Cēsis scores more
34%

Sigulda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sigulda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigulda vs Cēsis

Cēsis beat Sigulda 3-2 in Cup on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Cēsu pilsētas stadions in Cēsis.