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Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Slovácko
Slovácko
4/19/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Andruv stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc44%
×Draw26%
Slovácko30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.49
Slovácko
1.19

Sigma Olomouc creates 25% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 123 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
Slovácko
1.15

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
Slovácko
1.60

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Slovácko+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
70%
Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko
74%
Draw or Slovácko
56%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
22%
Slovácko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
77%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
44%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
19%
Slovácko 1+ goals
70%
Slovácko 2+ goals
33%
Slovácko 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
59%
Slovácko (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Slovácko away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.60 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Slovácko defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Slovácko attack 1.15 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
44%
level
26%
Slovácko scores more
30%

Sigma Olomouc at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 in Czech Liga on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Andruv stadion in Olomouc.