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Sigma Olomouc vs Sereď — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
2 – 1
Sereď
Sereď
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hrište Slatinice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sigma Olomouc64%
×Draw21%
Sereď15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.95
Sereď
0.82

Sigma Olomouc creates 138% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.90
Sereď
1.14

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
0.50
Sereď
2.00

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
85%
Sigma Olomouc or Sereď
79%
Draw or Sereď
36%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
39%
Sereď wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
86%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
58%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
31%
Sereď 1+ goals
56%
Sereď 2+ goals
20%
Sereď 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
81%
Sereď (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 20 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.90 + Sereď defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sereď attack 1.14 + Sigma Olomouc defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
64%
level
21%
Sereď scores more
15%

Sigma Olomouc at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs Sereď

Sigma Olomouc beat Sereď 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Hrište Slatinice in Slatinice.