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Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
J. Matousek 75'
M. Pospisil 57'
J. Vodhanel 44'
L. Julis 26' (pen)
7/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hrište Slatinice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sigma Olomouc65%
×Draw21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.98
Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.80

Sigma Olomouc creates 147% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.90
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.07

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
0.52
Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.07

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
86%
Sigma Olomouc or Dukla Banská Bystrica
79%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
35%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
40%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
86%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
59%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
31%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
55%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
82%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.52 · 21 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.90 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.07 + Sigma Olomouc defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
65%
level
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
14%

Sigma Olomouc at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
L. JulisPenalty
44'
J. Vodhanel
46'
A. Hanes← J. Guimaraes
46'
V. de Oliveira← V. de Oliveira
46'
M. Hruska← M. Trnovsky
46'
L. Julis← P. Zifcak
46'
J. Prichystal← J. Matousek
46'
V. Kristal← V. Kristal
46'
D. Ventura← M. Pospisil
46'
R. Breite← D. Israel
46'
M. Cahel← M. Cahel
57'
M. Pospisil
60'
L. Migala← A. Kacerik
60'
S. Svetlik← S. Svetlik
60'
D. Richtarech← B. Luptak
60'
T. Zahumensky← M. Koros
60'
M. Pisoja← M. Pisoja
67'
J. Vodhanel← D. Kramar
68'
L. Willweber← J. Uhrincat
75'
J. Matousek

Statistics

SigmaDukla
Overview
3Corners7

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

Sigma Olomouc beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2023.

Goals: L. Julis (26' pen), J. Vodhanel (44'), M. Pospisil (57'), J. Matousek (75').

The match was played at Hrište Slatinice in Slatinice.