Sigma Olomouc U19 2–1 Slovácko U19: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovácko U19

10/5/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 9Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1957%

×Draw22%

Slovácko U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc U19Expected goals in this matchSlovácko U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.17

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.01

Slovácko U19

1.17

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

2.13

creates per match

1.30

1.03

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.13

Slovácko U19

1.30

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.03

Slovácko U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw

78%

Sigma Olomouc U19 or Slovácko U19

78%

Draw or Slovácko U19

43%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

34%

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

87%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

59%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

32%

Slovácko U19 1+ goals

69%

Slovácko U19 2+ goals

33%

Slovácko U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.01

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Slovácko U19 scores more

22%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff