Sigma Olomouc U19 0–2 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Sigma Olomouc U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Lyonnais U19

L. Pintor 83'

M. Caqueret 31'

2/20/2019

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsAndrův stadion (Olomouc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1938%

×Draw22%

Olympique Lyonnais U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.77

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.73

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

2.20

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.67

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.33

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw

60%

Sigma Olomouc U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

78%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

62%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

82%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

52%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

25%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

83%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

53%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.67 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

40%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Caqueret↳ M. Bard

61'

J. Šíp← M. Galus

61'

T. Zlatohlávek← M. Vybíral

75'

D. Grečmal← J. Matousek

75'

T. Oualembo← R. Griffiths

75'

J. Fumont← M. Cherki

81'

L. Raab← M. Diblík

83'

L. Pintor↳ T. Oualembo

89'

E. Coly← L. Pintor

90+2'

C. Lukeba← T. Matam

90+2'

T. Ehling← T. Thomas

Sigma

Olympique

16

Barcola

5

Dramé

11

▼

Matam

3

A

Bard

20

Kalulu

8

⚽

Caqueret

7

Soumaré

21

▼

Griffiths

17

⚽

▼

Pintor

22

▼

Thomas

23

▼

1

3

16

2

▼

Diblík

5

Zima

7

▼

Matousek

8

▼

Vybíral

14

▼

12

11

19

Manager: T. Janotka

61'▲J. Šíp←▼M. Galus

61'▲T. Zlatohlávek←▼M. Vybíral

75'▲D. Grečmal←▼J. Matousek

81'▲L. Raab←▼M. Diblík

Sigma Olomouc U19 substitutes

6Šíp10Zlatohlávek15Grečmal9Raab30Obzina4Kratochvíl18Bednár

Manager: S. Roche

75'▲T. Oualembo←▼R. Griffiths

75'▲J. Fumont←▼M. Cherki

89'▲E. Coly←▼L. Pintor

90+2'▲C. Lukeba←▼T. Matam

90+2'▲T. Ehling←▼T. Thomas

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

9Oualembo15Fumont38Coly12Lukeba14Ehling1Margueron29Ngolou