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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
3/9/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 17Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1956%
×Draw21%
Mladá Boleslav U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.08
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.25

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.48

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Mladá Boleslav U19
2.04

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Mladá Boleslav U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
77%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Mladá Boleslav U19
79%
Draw or Mladá Boleslav U19
44%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
34%
Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
87%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
61%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
34%
Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
71%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
36%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Mladá Boleslav U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.04 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.48 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
23%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Sigma Olomouc U19 1–2 Mladá Boleslav U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Sigma Olomouc U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.