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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
J. Prohaszka 58'
M. Svaty 62'
4/12/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 21Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1962%
×Draw20%
Jablonec U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.20
Jablonec U19
1.11

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Jablonec U19
1.20

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Jablonec U19
2.27

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
82%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Jablonec U19
80%
Draw or Jablonec U19
38%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
39%
Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
89%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
64%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
37%
Jablonec U19 1+ goals
67%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
30%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
62%
level
20%
Jablonec U19 scores more
18%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
V. Lasak← V. Lasak
46'
J. Prohaszka← J. Prohaszka
58'
J. Prohaszka
58'
F. Bakrlik
62'
M. Svaty
67'
F. Capka← F. Capka
67'
M. Skoda← M. Kriklava
74'
K. Hudak← K. Hudak
77'
L. Sirucek
79'
M. Vopat← M. Vopat
80'
G. Erewa
87'
M. Gyore← M. Gyore
90+2'
S. Novotny← S. Novotny
90+3'
D. Mecir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Sigma Olomouc U19 1–1 Jablonec U19

Sigma Olomouc U19 and Jablonec U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Prohaszka (58'), M. Svaty (62').

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.