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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
M. Taborsky 80'
J. Stryk 71'
J. J. Nalewajka 52' (OG)
S. Jalovicor 38'
V. Zahradnicek 24'
A. Proniuk 15'
4/6/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 21Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1971%
×Draw17%
Frýdek-Místek U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.50
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.95

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 163% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
88%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19
83%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
29%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
48%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
92%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
71%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
45%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
61%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
25%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.50

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
71%
level
17%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
12%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Proniuk
24'
V. Zahradnicek
38'
S. Jalovicor
52'
J. J. NalewajkaOwn goal
71'
J. Stryk
80'
M. Taborsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19

Sigma Olomouc U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 6-0 in 1. Liga U19 on April 6, 2024.

Goals: A. Proniuk (15'), V. Zahradnicek (24'), S. Jalovicor (38'), J. J. Nalewajka (52' o.g.), J. Stryk (71'), M. Taborsky (80').

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.