Sigma Olomouc U19 2–1 Baník Ostrava U19

Sigma Olomouc U19

FT

2 – 1

Baník Ostrava U19

9/28/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 15Stadion Řepčín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1948%

×Draw23%

Baník Ostrava U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc U19Expected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.42

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.86

Baník Ostrava U19

1.42

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 77 away

2.13

creates per match

1.81

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

2.13

Baník Ostrava U19

1.81

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.03

Baník Ostrava U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw

70%

Sigma Olomouc U19 or Baník Ostrava U19

77%

Draw or Baník Ostrava U19

52%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

26%

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

84%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

55%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

28%

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

76%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

41%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.86

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

30%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff