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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
L. Dvoracek 84'
11/2/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1950%
×Draw22%
Sigma Olomouc U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
1.93
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.40

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.57

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.49

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
72%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Sigma Olomouc U19
78%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19
50%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
28%
Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
85%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
57%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
30%
Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
41%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
28%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
F. Svrcek← F. Svrcek
66'
L. Dvoracek← L. Dvoracek
70'
M. Glamos← M. Glamos
74'
D. Drabek
78'
M. Skoda← M. Skoda
79'
D. Macharacek
80'
J. Pira
84'
L. Dvoracek
84'
J. Andrysek← J. Andrysek
84'
J. Michalik← J. Michalik
88'
J. Pavek← J. Pavek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Sigma Olomouc U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on November 2, 2024.

Goals: L. Dvoracek (84').

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.