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Sigma Olomouc II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
K. Kasprzak 10'
7/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II76%
×Draw15%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
2.51
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.71

Sigma Olomouc II creates 254% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
3.60
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.83

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
0.60
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.42

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
91%
Sigma Olomouc II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
85%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
24%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
54%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
92%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
71%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
45%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
51%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
16%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
90%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 3.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 3.60 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.51

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 0.83 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
76%
level
15%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
9%

Sigma Olomouc II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
K. Kasprzak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sigma Olomouc II 0–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Sigma Olomouc II 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2026.

Goals: K. Kasprzak (10').