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Sigma Olomouc II vs Artis — FNL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Artis
Artis
9/24/2023FNLFNL · Round 10Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II39%
×Draw26%
Artis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
1.37
Artis
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
1.53
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
1.29
Artis
1.21

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
65%
Sigma Olomouc II or Artis
74%
Draw or Artis
61%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
18%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
40%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
16%
Artis 1+ goals
72%
Artis 2+ goals
37%
Artis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
52%
Artis (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.53 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Artis attack 1.28 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
39%
level
26%
Artis scores more
35%

Sigma Olomouc II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc II vs Artis

Artis beat Sigma Olomouc II 1-0 in FNL on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Andrův stadion in Olomouc.