Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SIF vs SJK Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

SIF
SIF
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundBotniahalli ulkotekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SIF9%
×Draw16%
SJK Akatemia75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SIF
0.76
SJK Akatemia
2.51

SJK Akatemia creates 230% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

SIF
0.33
SJK Akatemia
2.36

allows per match

SIF
2.67
SJK Akatemia
1.18

finishing

SIF+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SIF ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SIF or draw
25%
SIF or SJK Akatemia
84%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
91%

Winning margin

SIF wins by 2+
3%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

SIF 1+ goals
53%
SIF 2+ goals
18%
SIF 3+ goals
4%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
92%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
71%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

SIF (draw refunded)
11%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SIF at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SIF attack 0.33 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

SJK Akatemia attack 2.36 + SIF defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

SIF scores more
9%
level
16%
SJK Akatemia scores more
75%

SJK Akatemia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SIF vs SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat SIF 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Botniahalli ulkotekonurmi in Mustasaari.