Siezenheim 3–1 Bergheim: Result & Stats

Siezenheim

FT

3 – 1

Bergheim

4/15/2023

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 18Sportplatz Siezenheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Siezenheim56%

×Draw20%

Bergheim24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiezenheimExpected goals in this matchBergheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.49

Siezenheim

2.32

Bergheim

1.49

Siezenheim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 37 away

1.88

creates per match

1.57

1.41

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Siezenheim

1.88

Bergheim

1.57

allows per match

Siezenheim

1.41

Bergheim

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siezenheim+0.00on par

Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siezenheim ↓

Bergheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Siezenheim or draw

76%

Siezenheim or Bergheim

80%

Draw or Bergheim

44%

Winning margin

Siezenheim wins by 2+

35%

Bergheim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Siezenheim 1+ goals

90%

Siezenheim 2+ goals

67%

Siezenheim 3+ goals

40%

Bergheim 1+ goals

77%

Bergheim 2+ goals

44%

Bergheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Siezenheim (draw refunded)

70%

Bergheim (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siezenheim at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siezenheim attack 1.88 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.32

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Siezenheim defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Siezenheim scores more

56%

level

20%

Bergheim scores more

24%

Siezenheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Siezenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff