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Siete Villas vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Tropezón
Tropezón
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Siete Villas34%
×Draw26%
Tropezón40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.29
Tropezón
1.43

Tropezón creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 94 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
60%
Siete Villas or Tropezón
74%
Draw or Tropezón
66%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
15%
Tropezón wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
72%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
37%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
14%
Tropezón 1+ goals
76%
Tropezón 2+ goals
42%
Tropezón 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
46%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siete Villas scores more
34%
level
26%
Tropezón scores more
40%

Tropezón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 4–2 Tropezón

Siete Villas beat Tropezón 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.