Siete Villas 3–1 Torina: Result & Stats

Siete Villas

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torina

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Siete Villas40%

×Draw27%

Torina33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siete VillasExpected goals in this matchTorina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.18

Siete Villas

1.34

Torina

1.18

Siete Villas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

1.48

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Siete Villas

1.48

Torina

1.05

allows per match

Siete Villas

1.31

Torina

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Torina →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw

67%

Siete Villas or Torina

73%

Draw or Torina

60%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+

19%

Torina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals

74%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

39%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

15%

Torina 1+ goals

69%

Torina 2+ goals

33%

Torina 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

55%

Torina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Torina attack 1.05 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siete Villas scores more

40%

level

27%

Torina scores more

33%

Siete Villas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff