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Siete Villas vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Siete Villas51%
×Draw24%
Textil Escudo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.69
Textil Escudo
1.09

Siete Villas creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 56 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
75%
Siete Villas or Textil Escudo
76%
Draw or Textil Escudo
49%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
28%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
82%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
50%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
24%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
66%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
30%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
68%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Siete Villas scores more
51%
level
24%
Textil Escudo scores more
25%

Siete Villas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siete Villas vs Textil Escudo

Siete Villas beat Textil Escudo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.