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Siete Villas vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Siete Villas31%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.17
Racing Santander II
1.44

Racing Santander II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 27 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
57%
Siete Villas or Racing Santander II
74%
Draw or Racing Santander II
69%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
12%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
69%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
33%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
11%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
76%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
42%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.17

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Siete Villas scores more
31%
level
26%
Racing Santander II scores more
43%

Racing Santander II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 3–1 Racing Santander II

Siete Villas beat Racing Santander II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.