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Siete Villas vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bezana
Bezana
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Siete Villas40%
×Draw26%
Bezana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.41
Bezana
1.27

Siete Villas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 81 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Bezana
1.23

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Bezana
1.33

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Bezana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
66%
Siete Villas or Bezana
74%
Draw or Bezana
60%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
19%
Bezana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
76%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
41%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
17%
Bezana 1+ goals
72%
Bezana 2+ goals
36%
Bezana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
54%
Bezana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bezana attack 1.23 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siete Villas scores more
40%
level
26%
Bezana scores more
34%

Siete Villas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 3–1 Bezana

Siete Villas beat Bezana 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.