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Siete Villas vs Barquereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
PST
00:00
Barquereño
Barquereño
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Siete Villas49%
×Draw24%
Barquereño26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.69
Barquereño
1.17

Siete Villas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 62 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Barquereño
1.02

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Barquereño
1.89

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Barquereño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Barquereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
74%
Siete Villas or Barquereño
76%
Draw or Barquereño
51%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
26%
Barquereño wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
82%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
50%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
24%
Barquereño 1+ goals
69%
Barquereño 2+ goals
33%
Barquereño 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
65%
Barquereño (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Barquereño away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Barquereño defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Barquereño attack 1.02 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Siete Villas scores more
49%
level
24%
Barquereño scores more
26%

Siete Villas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Siete Villas host Barquereño

April 26, 2020: Siete Villas take on Barquereño in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Siete Villas host Barquereño at Campo San Pedro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.