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Barquereño vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barquereño
Barquereño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
3/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Barquereño42%
×Draw26%
Siete Villas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barquereño
1.43
Siete Villas
1.20

Barquereño creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 91 away

creates per match

Barquereño
1.58
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Barquereño
1.41
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw
68%
Barquereño or Siete Villas
74%
Draw or Siete Villas
58%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+
20%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals
76%
Barquereño 2+ goals
42%
Barquereño 3+ goals
17%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
70%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
34%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)
57%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barquereño scores more
42%
level
26%
Siete Villas scores more
32%

Barquereño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barquereño 0 – 1 Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Barquereño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañar in San Vicente de la Barquera.