Sierra Leone W 1–0 Senegal W: Result & Stats

Sierra Leone W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Senegal W

K. Salamatu 68' (pen)

5/31/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesStade Cheikha Ould Boidiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sierra Leone W45%

×Draw26%

Senegal W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sierra Leone WExpected goals in this matchSenegal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.13

Sierra Leone W

1.47

Senegal W

1.13

Sierra Leone W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sierra Leone W

1.33

Senegal W

0.93

allows per match

Sierra Leone W

1.33

Senegal W

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sierra Leone W+0.00on par

Senegal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sierra Leone W ↓

Senegal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sierra Leone W or draw

71%

Sierra Leone W or Senegal W

74%

Draw or Senegal W

55%

Winning margin

Sierra Leone W wins by 2+

22%

Senegal W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sierra Leone W 1+ goals

77%

Sierra Leone W 2+ goals

43%

Sierra Leone W 3+ goals

18%

Senegal W 1+ goals

68%

Senegal W 2+ goals

31%

Senegal W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sierra Leone W (draw refunded)

61%

Senegal W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sierra Leone W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Senegal W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sierra Leone W attack 1.33 + Senegal W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Senegal W attack 0.93 + Sierra Leone W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sierra Leone W scores more

45%

level

26%

Senegal W scores more

29%

Sierra Leone W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sierra Leone W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

K. SalamatuPenalty

Sierra

Senegal

21

18

5

8

3

19

14

15

7

17

9

21

7

⚽

3

4

5

6

12

14

18

9

17

Sierra Leone W substitutes

1Bangura16Conteh10Bangura11Kamara8Kamara13Kanu15Mansaray19Mansaray20Conteh

Manager: Serigné Mame Moussa Cissé

Senegal W substitutes

16FayeSeneCissokho12SagnaNdiayePeneFaty