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Sierra Leone vs Burkina Faso — League #29 2026

Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
M. Zougrana 42'
10/8/2025League #29League #29 · Group Stage - 9Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sierra Leone30%
×Draw31%
Burkina Faso39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sierra Leone
0.88
Burkina Faso
1.04

Burkina Faso creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sierra Leone
1.00
Burkina Faso
1.75

allows per match

Sierra Leone
0.33
Burkina Faso
0.75

finishing

Sierra Leone+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sierra Leone ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sierra Leone or draw
61%
Sierra Leone or Burkina Faso
69%
Draw or Burkina Faso
70%

Winning margin

Sierra Leone wins by 2+
10%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sierra Leone 1+ goals
59%
Sierra Leone 2+ goals
22%
Sierra Leone 3+ goals
6%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
65%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
28%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)
44%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sierra Leone at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sierra Leone attack 1.00 + Burkina Faso defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Burkina Faso attack 1.75 + Sierra Leone defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sierra Leone scores more
30%
level
31%
Burkina Faso scores more
39%

Burkina Faso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burkina Faso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Augustus Kargbo
39'
Abdoul Rachid Ayinde
42'
M. Zougrana↳ B. Traore
58'
Issoufou Dayo
68'
S. Gandi← K. Kamara
69'
J. Bilili Sesay← S. Tarawallie
69'
A. Koroma← A. Dumbuya
73'
M. Ouedraogo← M. Zougrana
74'
J. Tiendrebeogo← A. Ayinde
81'
G. Minoungou← D. Ouattara
82'
S. Simpore← I. Ouedraogo
82'
P. Kabore← B. Traore
84'
Issa Kaboré
90+2'
M. Buya Turay← N. Jalloh

Statistics

SierraBurkina
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Sierra Leone vs Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in League #29 on October 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Zougrana (42').

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex in Monrovia.