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Siero vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Siero32%
×Draw26%
Real Avilés42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.23
Real Avilés
1.43

Real Avilés creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Real Avilés
1.18

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Real Avilés
1.29

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Siero or draw
58%
Siero or Real Avilés
74%
Draw or Real Avilés
68%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
14%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
71%
Siero 2+ goals
35%
Siero 3+ goals
13%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
76%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
42%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
44%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Siero scores more
32%
level
26%
Real Avilés scores more
42%

Real Avilés at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siero vs Real Avilés

Siero and Real Avilés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.