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Siero vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero40%
×Draw26%
Navarro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.40
Navarro
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Siero or draw
66%
Siero or Navarro
74%
Draw or Navarro
60%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
19%
Navarro wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
75%
Siero 2+ goals
41%
Siero 3+ goals
17%
Navarro 1+ goals
72%
Navarro 2+ goals
37%
Navarro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
54%
Navarro (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Navarro attack 0.89 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siero scores more
40%
level
26%
Navarro scores more
34%

Siero at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Siero 1–0 Navarro

Siero beat Navarro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.