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Siero vs Llanera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Llanera
Llanera
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero22%
×Draw23%
Llanera55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.04
Llanera
1.79

Llanera creates 72% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Llanera
1.91

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Llanera
0.92

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Llanera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Llanera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Siero or draw
45%
Siero or Llanera
77%
Draw or Llanera
78%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
8%
Llanera wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
65%
Siero 2+ goals
28%
Siero 3+ goals
9%
Llanera 1+ goals
83%
Llanera 2+ goals
53%
Llanera 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
29%
Llanera (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Llanera away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.92 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Llanera defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Llanera attack 1.91 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Siero scores more
22%
level
23%
Llanera scores more
55%

Llanera at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Siero 1–2 Llanera

Llanera beat Siero 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.