Siero 3–2 Lenense: Result & Stats

Siero

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lenense

Carlos Arguelles 75', 35'

C. Okoronkwo 63'

Álvaro De la Rosa 89'

Abraham Rodríguez 28'

9/8/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero42%

×Draw26%

Lenense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SieroExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

Siero

1.44

Lenense

1.22

Siero creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 96 away

1.16

creates per match

0.76

1.68

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Siero

1.16

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Siero

1.68

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siero+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Lenense →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Siero or draw

68%

Siero or Lenense

74%

Draw or Lenense

58%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+

20%

Lenense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals

76%

Siero 2+ goals

42%

Siero 3+ goals

18%

Lenense 1+ goals

70%

Lenense 2+ goals

34%

Lenense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)

57%

Lenense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lenense attack 0.76 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Siero scores more

42%

level

26%

Lenense scores more

32%

Siero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Luis Del Río← Adrián González

Ramón Mera← Abraham Rodríguez

Diego Torres← Pablo Arguelles

28'

Abraham Rodríguez

35'

Carlos Arguelles

57'

Jorge Vázquez← Marcos Novoa

63'

C. Okoronkwo

73'

Pablo Menendez← Guille Vázquez

75'

Carlos Arguelles

84'

Pelayo García← Carlinos

89'

Álvaro De la Rosa

Siero

Lenense

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Aníbal López

57'▲Jorge Vázquez←▼Marcos Novoa

73'▲Pablo Menendez←▼Guille Vázquez

84'▲Pelayo García←▼Carlinos

Siero substitutes

VázquezMenendezGarcía

Manager: Alfonso Arias

6'▲Luis Del Río←▼Adrián González

7'▲Ramón Mera←▼Abraham Rodríguez

8'▲Diego Torres←▼Pablo Arguelles

Lenense substitutes

RíoMeraTorres

Match Recap: Siero vs Lenense

Siero beat Lenense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Abraham Rodríguez (28'), Carlos Arguelles (35', 75'), C. Okoronkwo (63'), Álvaro De la Rosa (89').

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.

Siero vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Siero vs Lenense