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Siero vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lealtad
Lealtad
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero24%
×Draw26%
Lealtad51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
0.97
Lealtad
1.54

Lealtad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 82 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Lealtad
1.41

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Lealtad
0.79

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Siero or draw
49%
Siero or Lealtad
74%
Draw or Lealtad
76%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
8%
Lealtad wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
62%
Siero 2+ goals
25%
Siero 3+ goals
7%
Lealtad 1+ goals
79%
Lealtad 2+ goals
45%
Lealtad 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
32%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Siero scores more
24%
level
26%
Lealtad scores more
51%

Lealtad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Siero 0–3 Lealtad

Lealtad beat Siero 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.