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Siero vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
CANC
22:00
Covadonga
Covadonga
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero23%
×Draw24%
Covadonga53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.06
Covadonga
1.74

Covadonga creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 83 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Siero or draw
47%
Siero or Covadonga
76%
Draw or Covadonga
77%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
65%
Siero 2+ goals
29%
Siero 3+ goals
9%
Covadonga 1+ goals
82%
Covadonga 2+ goals
52%
Covadonga 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
30%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Siero scores more
23%
level
24%
Covadonga scores more
53%

Covadonga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Siero face Covadonga (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Siero hosting Covadonga. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Siero host Covadonga at Estadio El Bayu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.