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Siero vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Ceares
Ceares
9/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero31%
×Draw26%
Ceares43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.17
Ceares
1.44

Ceares creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 93 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Ceares
1.20

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Ceares
1.19

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Ceares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siero or draw
57%
Siero or Ceares
74%
Draw or Ceares
69%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
12%
Ceares wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
69%
Siero 2+ goals
33%
Siero 3+ goals
11%
Ceares 1+ goals
76%
Ceares 2+ goals
42%
Ceares 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
42%
Ceares (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ceares attack 1.20 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Siero scores more
31%
level
26%
Ceares scores more
43%

Ceares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siero vs Ceares

Ceares beat Siero 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.