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Siero vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Siero
Siero
CANC
22:00
Caudal
Caudal
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero26%
×Draw26%
Caudal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siero
1.06
Caudal
1.52

Caudal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 113 away

creates per match

Siero
1.16
Caudal
1.35

allows per match

Siero
1.68
Caudal
0.96

finishing

Siero+0.00on par
Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Caudal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siero or draw
52%
Siero or Caudal
74%
Draw or Caudal
74%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+
10%
Caudal wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals
65%
Siero 2+ goals
29%
Siero 3+ goals
9%
Caudal 1+ goals
78%
Caudal 2+ goals
45%
Caudal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)
36%
Caudal (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Caudal attack 1.35 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Siero scores more
26%
level
26%
Caudal scores more
48%

Caudal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Siero host Caudal

May 16, 2020: Siero take on Caudal in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Siero host Caudal at Estadio El Bayu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.