Siegendorf 3–0 Edelserpentin: Result & Stats

Siegendorf

FT

3 – 0

Edelserpentin

11/11/2023

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 15Sportplatz Siegendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siegendorf61%

×Draw20%

Edelserpentin19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiegendorfExpected goals in this matchEdelserpentin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.09

Siegendorf

2.12

Edelserpentin

1.09

Siegendorf creates 94% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 44 away

2.38

creates per match

1.11

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Siegendorf

2.38

Edelserpentin

1.11

allows per match

Siegendorf

1.07

Edelserpentin

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siegendorf+0.00on par

Edelserpentin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegendorf ↓

Edelserpentin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Siegendorf or draw

81%

Siegendorf or Edelserpentin

80%

Draw or Edelserpentin

39%

Winning margin

Siegendorf wins by 2+

37%

Edelserpentin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Siegendorf 1+ goals

88%

Siegendorf 2+ goals

62%

Siegendorf 3+ goals

35%

Edelserpentin 1+ goals

66%

Edelserpentin 2+ goals

30%

Edelserpentin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Siegendorf (draw refunded)

76%

Edelserpentin (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegendorf at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Edelserpentin away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.86 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegendorf attack 2.38 + Edelserpentin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Edelserpentin attack 1.11 + Siegendorf defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Siegendorf scores more

61%

level

20%

Edelserpentin scores more

19%

Siegendorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Siegendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff