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Siegburger SV vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
CANC
13:45
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
11/15/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Siegburger SV71%
×Draw15%
Wesseling-Urfeld13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
2.97
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.25

Siegburger SV creates 138% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
87%
Siegburger SV or Wesseling-Urfeld
85%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
29%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
51%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
95%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
79%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
56%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
71%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
36%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
84%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 2.97

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
71%
level
15%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
13%

Siegburger SV at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Siegburger SV host Wesseling-Urfeld

November 15, 2020: Siegburger SV take on Wesseling-Urfeld in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Siegburger SV host Wesseling-Urfeld at Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.