Siegburger SV 4–1 Union Schafhausen: Result & Stats

Siegburger SV

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Schafhausen

3/10/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Siegburger SV60%

×Draw20%

Union Schafhausen20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siegburger SVExpected goals in this matchUnion Schafhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.23

Siegburger SV

2.25

Union Schafhausen

1.23

Siegburger SV creates 83% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 29 away

1.89

creates per match

0.97

1.49

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Siegburger SV

1.89

Union Schafhausen

0.97

allows per match

Siegburger SV

1.49

Union Schafhausen

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Union Schafhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw

80%

Siegburger SV or Union Schafhausen

80%

Draw or Union Schafhausen

40%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

38%

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

89%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

65%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

39%

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals

71%

Union Schafhausen 2+ goals

35%

Union Schafhausen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

75%

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.25

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Siegburger SV scores more

60%

level

20%

Union Schafhausen scores more

20%

Siegburger SV at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff