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Siegburger SV vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
CANC
13:15
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
5/13/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Siegburger SV55%
×Draw21%
Friesdorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
2.19
Friesdorf
1.43

Siegburger SV creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 36 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
75%
Siegburger SV or Friesdorf
79%
Draw or Friesdorf
45%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
33%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
89%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
64%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
37%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
76%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
42%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
69%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
55%
level
21%
Friesdorf scores more
25%

Siegburger SV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Siegburger SV vs Friesdorf — Match Preview

Siegburger SV face Friesdorf on May 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Siegburger SV host Friesdorf at Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.