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Siegburger SV vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
CANC
13:45
Deutz
Deutz
12/6/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Siegburger SV59%
×Draw20%
Deutz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
2.29
Deutz
1.30

Siegburger SV creates 76% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Deutz
2.68

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
79%
Siegburger SV or Deutz
80%
Draw or Deutz
41%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
37%
Deutz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
90%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
66%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
40%
Deutz 1+ goals
73%
Deutz 2+ goals
37%
Deutz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
74%
Deutz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.29

Deutz attack 1.11 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
59%
level
20%
Deutz scores more
21%

Siegburger SV at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Siegburger SV vs Deutz — Match Preview

Siegburger SV face Deutz on December 6, 2020 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Siegburger SV host Deutz at Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.