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Siegburger SV vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
FT
2 – 0
Alfter
Alfter
12/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Siegburger SV44%
×Draw23%
Alfter33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
1.81
Alfter
1.54

Siegburger SV creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Alfter
1.74

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
67%
Siegburger SV or Alfter
77%
Draw or Alfter
56%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
24%
Alfter wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
54%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
27%
Alfter 1+ goals
79%
Alfter 2+ goals
45%
Alfter 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
57%
Alfter (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Alfter attack 1.58 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
44%
level
23%
Alfter scores more
33%

Siegburger SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siegburger SV vs Alfter

Siegburger SV beat Alfter 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Walter-Mundorf-Stadion in Siegburg.