Sidwashini United 2–2 Madlenya: Result & Stats

Sidwashini United

FT

2 – 2

Madlenya

1/4/2025

Premier League · Round 9Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sidwashini United33%

×Draw25%

Madlenya42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidwashini UnitedExpected goals in this matchMadlenya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.54

Sidwashini United

1.33

Madlenya

1.54

Madlenya creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

0.77

creates per match

0.85

2.23

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sidwashini United

0.77

Madlenya

0.85

allows per match

Sidwashini United

2.23

Madlenya

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Madlenya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidwashini United ↓

Madlenya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sidwashini United or draw

58%

Sidwashini United or Madlenya

75%

Draw or Madlenya

67%

Winning margin

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

14%

Madlenya wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

74%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

38%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

15%

Madlenya 1+ goals

79%

Madlenya 2+ goals

45%

Madlenya 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

44%

Madlenya (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidwashini United at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Madlenya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.90 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidwashini United attack 0.77 + Madlenya defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Madlenya attack 0.85 + Sidwashini United defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sidwashini United scores more

33%

level

25%

Madlenya scores more

42%

Madlenya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Madlenya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff