Sidwashini United 0–0 Illovo: Result & Stats

Sidwashini United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Illovo

5/11/2025

Premier League · Round 18Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sidwashini United27%

×Draw25%

Illovo48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidwashini UnitedExpected goals in this matchIllovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.64

Sidwashini United

1.16

Illovo

1.64

Illovo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

0.77

creates per match

1.04

2.23

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sidwashini United

0.77

Illovo

1.04

allows per match

Sidwashini United

2.23

Illovo

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Illovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidwashini United ↓

Illovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sidwashini United or draw

52%

Sidwashini United or Illovo

75%

Draw or Illovo

73%

Winning margin

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

11%

Illovo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

69%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

32%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

11%

Illovo 1+ goals

81%

Illovo 2+ goals

49%

Illovo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

36%

Illovo (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidwashini United at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Illovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidwashini United attack 0.77 + Illovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.16

Illovo attack 1.04 + Sidwashini United defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sidwashini United scores more

27%

level

25%

Illovo scores more

48%

Illovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Illovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff