Sidwashini United 1–1 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Sidwashini United

FT

1 – 1

Highlanders

5/3/2025

Premier League · Round 17Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sidwashini United18%

×Draw23%

Highlanders59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidwashini UnitedExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.76

Sidwashini United

0.84

Highlanders

1.76

Highlanders creates 110% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

0.77

creates per match

1.29

2.23

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sidwashini United

0.77

Highlanders

1.29

allows per match

Sidwashini United

2.23

Highlanders

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidwashini United ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sidwashini United or draw

41%

Sidwashini United or Highlanders

77%

Draw or Highlanders

82%

Winning margin

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

5%

Highlanders wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

57%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

21%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

5%

Highlanders 1+ goals

83%

Highlanders 2+ goals

52%

Highlanders 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

23%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidwashini United at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidwashini United attack 0.77 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Sidwashini United defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sidwashini United scores more

18%

level

23%

Highlanders scores more

59%

Highlanders at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff